Treviso 74-80 Bologna, April 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. Bologna beat Treviso 80-74, but Treviso's shots were worth 99.0 points to Bologna's 94.9.

Treviso 74-80 Bologna, April 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
Treviso695679.718/2519.37499.0
Bologna635975.821/2519.28094.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Lega Basket Serie A games, 2024-25

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.