ΑΕΚ 63-101 PAO, game 44 of 2025-26

Did the better shots win?

No. PAO beat ΑΕΚ 101-63, but ΑΕΚ's shots were worth 77.3 points to PAO's 75.5.

ΑΕΚ 63-101 PAO, game 44 of 2025-26: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ΑΕΚ	56	47	60.8	16/22	16.5	63	77.3
PAO	61	84	62.5	17/17	13.0	101	75.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Greek Basket League games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.