ARI 78-61 MYK, game 20 of 2025-26

Did the better shots win?

No. ARI beat MYK 78-61, but MYK's shots were worth 87.5 points to ARI's 66.4.

ARI 78-61 MYK, game 20 of 2025-26: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ARI	48	65	53.7	13/17	12.6	78	66.4
MYK	70	53	79.4	8/11	8.1	61	87.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Greek Basket League games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.