NAP 105-101 BUR, October 21, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. NAP beat BUR 105-101, but BUR's shots were worth 89.3 points to NAP's 86.9.

NAP 105-101 BUR, October 21, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
NAP738968.616/2518.310586.9
BUR768573.616/2015.710189.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroCup games, 2026-27

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.