BGS 85-81 LJU, September 30, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. BGS beat LJU 85-81, but LJU's shots were worth 85.9 points to BGS's 73.4.

BGS 85-81 LJU, September 30, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
BGS587259.913/1813.48573.4
LJU656167.420/2418.58185.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroCup games, 2026-27

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.