ULM 103-96 NIO, October 7, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ULM beat NIO 103-96, but NIO's shots were worth 87.8 points to ULM's 84.5.

ULM 103-96 NIO, October 7, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
ULM739476.59/118.010384.5
NIO647365.523/3022.39687.8

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroCup games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.