NIO 79-78 LLI, January 28, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. NIO beat LLI 79-78, and NIO's shots were worth 89.0 points to LLI's 73.6.

NIO 79-78 LLI, January 28, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
NIO	68	62	72.5	17/22	16.5	79	89.0
LLI	58	64	61.6	14/16	12.0	78	73.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.