LLI 70-78 NIN, January 7, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. NIN beat LLI 78-70, but LLI's shots were worth 71.6 points to NIN's 70.5.

LLI 70-78 NIN, January 7, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
LLI	56	56	56.7	14/22	14.9	70	71.6
NIN	53	59	53.3	19/23	17.3	78	70.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.