HAM 89-92 ARI, December 17, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ARI beat HAM 92-89, but HAM's shots were worth 93.6 points to ARI's 91.0.

HAM 89-92 ARI, December 17, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HAM	73	72	75.9	17/24	17.7	89	93.6
ARI	63	66	67.5	26/30	23.4	92	91.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroCup games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.