PAR 76-78 BAR, October 31, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BAR beat PAR 78-76, but PAR's shots were worth 90.9 points to BAR's 80.9.

PAR 76-78 BAR, October 31, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
PAR656679.410/1511.57690.9
BAR526159.617/2721.37880.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroLeague games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.