ZAL 78-89 MIL, October 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat ZAL 89-78, but ZAL's shots were worth 92.0 points to MIL's 87.2.

ZAL 78-89 MIL, October 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
ZAL686882.310/139.77892.0
MIL617271.517/1915.78987.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroLeague games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.