DUB 83-78 BAR, October 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. DUB beat BAR 83-78, but BAR's shots were worth 98.7 points to DUB's 95.1.

DUB 83-78 BAR, October 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
DUB626172.722/2822.58395.1
BAR706279.716/2418.97898.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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