MIL 87-84 BAR, March 5, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat BAR 87-84, but BAR's shots were worth 91.0 points to MIL's 80.4.

MIL 87-84 BAR, March 5, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MIL526759.220/2621.28780.4
BAR737885.86/75.28491.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.