PAM 103-94 VIR, October 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. PAM beat VIR 103-94, but VIR's shots were worth 102.3 points to PAM's 100.8.

PAM 103-94 VIR, October 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
PAM	69	88	85.4	15/21	15.4	103	100.8
VIR	70	78	88.7	16/17	13.6	94	102.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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