IST 81-87 HTA, October 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HTA beat IST 87-81, but IST's shots were worth 83.3 points to HTA's 81.2.

IST 81-87 HTA, October 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
IST596166.120/2117.28183.3
HTA636258.725/2822.58781.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.