PAR 80-78 MIL, October 2, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. PAR beat MIL 80-78, and PAR's shots were worth 81.3 points to MIL's 70.1.

PAR 80-78 MIL, October 2, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
PAR616968.111/1613.28081.3
MIL516555.513/1914.67870.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All EuroLeague games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.