MIL 86-80 MCO, February 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MIL beat MCO 86-80, but MCO's shots were worth 95.1 points to MIL's 80.8.

MIL 86-80 MCO, February 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MIL567262.514/2218.38680.8
MCO716682.814/1512.28095.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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