MAD 86-96 OLY, January 16, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. OLY beat MAD 96-86, and OLY's shots were worth 89.2 points to MAD's 80.2.

MAD 86-96 OLY, January 16, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
MAD697669.410/1410.98680.2
OLY678071.316/2417.99689.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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