BAR 88-73 BER, October 11, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. BAR beat BER 88-73, but BER's shots were worth 85.1 points to BAR's 82.4.

BAR 88-73 BER, October 11, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BAR	69	83	77.0	5/7	5.4	88	82.4
BER	65	65	73.7	8/15	11.4	73	85.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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