HAM 86-83 HDB, March 13, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. HAM beat HDB 86-83, but HDB's shots were worth 85.1 points to HAM's 81.7.

HAM 86-83 HDB, March 13, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HAM	63	66	64.9	20/22	16.8	86	81.7
HDB	62	56	60.0	27/33	25.1	83	85.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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