HAM 84-82 ULM, January 18, 2026

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HAM beat ULM 84-82, and HAM's shots were worth 87.5 points to ULM's 75.1.

HAM 84-82 ULM, January 18, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
HAM616566.219/3021.38487.5
ULM616863.814/1611.38275.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Basketball Bundesliga games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.