HDB 108-111 HAM, December 21, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. HAM beat HDB 111-108, but HDB's shots were worth 100.5 points to HAM's 97.7.

HDB 108-111 HAM, December 21, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HDB	76	79	76.9	29/32	23.6	108	100.5
HAM	64	75	65.6	36/44	32.1	111	97.7

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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