BON 81-79 ULM, November 8, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BON beat ULM 81-79, but ULM's shots were worth 77.3 points to BON's 76.7.

BON 81-79 ULM, November 8, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BON	64	70	64.1	11/19	12.6	81	76.7
ULM	67	67	64.5	12/17	12.8	79	77.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Basketball Bundesliga games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.