VEC 86-76 HDB, September 27, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. VEC beat HDB 86-76, but HDB's shots were worth 84.3 points to VEC's 81.5.

VEC 86-76 HDB, September 27, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
VEC	58	67	58.3	19/33	23.2	86	81.5
HDB	61	58	64.2	18/27	20.0	76	84.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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