HAM 64-79 ULM, May 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ULM beat HAM 79-64, but HAM's shots were worth 78.0 points to ULM's 72.6.

HAM 64-79 ULM, May 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HAM	57	52	62.3	12/22	15.7	64	78.0
ULM	61	70	64.5	9/11	8.1	79	72.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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