MBC 102-81 HAM, May 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. MBC beat HAM 102-81, but HAM's shots were worth 92.2 points to MBC's 90.3.

MBC 102-81 HAM, May 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MBC	67	90	77.9	12/16	12.5	102	90.3
HAM	63	57	70.3	24/30	21.9	81	92.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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