VEC 78-60 HDB, April 30, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. VEC beat HDB 78-60, but HDB's shots were worth 82.9 points to VEC's 80.5.

VEC 78-60 HDB, April 30, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
VEC	60	57	59.4	21/29	21.2	78	80.5
HDB	56	42	60.8	18/30	22.1	60	82.9

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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