HAM 88-81 HDB, April 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HAM beat HDB 88-81, and HAM's shots were worth 83.6 points to HDB's 78.6.

HAM 88-81 HDB, April 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HAM	63	74	68.5	14/21	15.1	88	83.6
HDB	64	65	62.6	16/22	16.0	81	78.6

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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