FRS 72-77 HRO, April 17, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Yes. HRO beat FRS 77-72, and HRO's shots were worth 88.3 points to FRS's 75.3.

FRS 72-77 HRO, April 17, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
FRS	70	61	65.0	11/15	10.2	72	75.3
HRO	76	59	71.3	18/23	17.0	77	88.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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