BRA 98-89 ULM, January 19, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BRA beat ULM 98-89, but ULM's shots were worth 103.1 points to BRA's 84.4.

BRA 98-89 ULM, January 19, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BRA	60	81	63.7	17/28	20.7	98	84.4
ULM	77	69	82.5	20/28	20.7	89	103.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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