ULM 82-72 HRO, January 11, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Neither side had the better shots. ULM beat HRO 82-72, and the shots on each side were worth 87.5.

ULM 82-72 HRO, January 11, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team
TeamFGAFG pointsFG expectedFTFT expectedPointsShots' worth
ULM706473.118/2014.48287.5
HRO665970.213/2317.47287.5

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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