BER 88-81 FCB, January 5, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. BER beat FCB 88-81, but FCB's shots were worth 85.1 points to BER's 81.2.

BER 88-81 FCB, January 5, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
BER	65	73	66.9	15/20	14.4	88	81.2
FCB	65	64	68.8	17/21	16.3	81	85.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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