MBC 89-92 ULM, January 4, 2025

Did the better shots win?

No. ULM beat MBC 92-89, but MBC's shots were worth 89.0 points to ULM's 79.4.

MBC 89-92 ULM, January 4, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
MBC	64	68	68.3	21/27	20.7	89	89.0
ULM	52	67	54.2	25/34	25.2	92	79.4

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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