HAM 87-78 OLD, October 6, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. HAM beat OLD 87-78, but OLD's shots were worth 84.3 points to HAM's 83.4.

HAM 87-78 OLD, October 6, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
HAM	66	77	75.5	10/11	7.9	87	83.4
OLD	66	70	74.7	8/13	9.6	78	84.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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