ULM 63-62 LUD, October 5, 2024

Did the better shots win?

No. ULM beat LUD 63-62, but LUD's shots were worth 87.3 points to ULM's 75.7.

ULM 63-62 LUD, October 5, 2024: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ULM	56	51	60.1	12/21	15.5	63	75.7
LUD	74	53	76.3	9/16	10.9	62	87.3

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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