CAZ 74-85 COV, May 9, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. COV beat CAZ 85-74, but CAZ's shots were worth 90.0 points to COV's 79.2.

CAZ 74-85 COV, May 9, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
CAZ	79	66	80.7	8/12	9.3	74	90.0
COV	54	60	55.4	25/30	23.7	85	79.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

All Liga ACB games, 2025-26

Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.