COV 64-83 BRE, January 31, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. BRE beat COV 83-64, but COV's shots were worth 91.6 points to BRE's 71.0.

COV 64-83 BRE, January 31, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
COV	64	51	76.0	13/21	15.6	64	91.6
BRE	61	81	67.8	2/4	3.2	83	71.0

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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