ILE 77-87 CAZ, January 4, 2026

Did the better shots win?

No. CAZ beat ILE 87-77, but ILE's shots were worth 86.0 points to CAZ's 84.2.

ILE 77-87 CAZ, January 4, 2026: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
ILE	56	51	62.6	26/30	23.4	77	86.0
CAZ	62	68	66.1	19/23	18.1	87	84.2

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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