Split 73-77 Zadar, January 3, 2025

Did the better shots win?

Neither side had the better shots. Zadar beat Split 77-73, and the shots on each side were worth 74.1.

Split 73-77 Zadar, January 3, 2025: points scored against what the shots were worth, by team

Team	FGA	FG points	FG expected	FT	FT expected	Points	Shots' worth
Split	63	62	64.3	11/13	9.8	73	74.1
Zadar	59	66	64.1	11/13	10.0	77	74.1

Field goals are priced by how often shots like them go in, free throws at the shooter's season rate. The gap between the score and the shots' worth is not a luck number: misses bring putbacks, and a team that falls behind takes more shots and draws more free throws. How it is measured.

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