Barely, league-wide. The NBA's shooting-foul rate went from 17.8 to 17.5 free throws per 100 possessions across the memo, a quarter of a free throw, and was higher than ever two seasons later. What changed was which players drew them.
| Season | Free throws per 100 |
|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 17.76 |
| 2021-22 (the memo season) | 17.51 |
| 2022-23 | 19.28 |
| 2023-24 | 18.06 |
| 2024-25 | 18.17 |
| 2025-26 | 19.33 |
Among the 208 players qualified on both sides of the memo, the change was surgical rather than league-wide. The five largest falls in free throws over expected per 100 possessions:
| Player | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | +8.6 | −1.9 | −10.5 |
| Evan Fournier | +0.9 | −7.8 | −8.7 |
| Hamidou Diallo | +14.2 | +5.9 | −8.3 |
| Mo Bamba | −0.2 | −7.7 | −7.5 |
| Malik Beasley | −6.7 | −13.8 | −7.1 |
Across the rule change the ordering of players held at r = 0.85 over 208 repeat players, in line with every other season-to-season pair in the model. Foul-drawing is a repeatable skill; the memo repriced particular moves, not the skill.
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