About 204.1 attempts before Greek Basket League shot-making is half reliable, and 329.9 attempts before it reaches 0.7. Shot selection settles far earlier, at 10 attempts for 0.5 and 12.5 attempts for 0.7. Selection is a property of where a player shoots from, which stabilises quickly; making is whether the ball went in, which does not.
| Attempts | Selection reliability | Shot-making reliability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.669 | 0.067 |
| 20 | 0.793 | 0.138 |
| 30 | 0.845 | 0.157 |
| 50 | 0.890 | 0.236 |
| 100 | 0.943 | 0.337 |
| 200 | 0.966 | 0.493 |
| 400 | 0.967 | 0.811 |
The observable ceiling on this population is 400 attempts, where selection reads 0.967 and making 0.811. These thresholds are a property of each league's own talent dispersion, not constants, which is why they differ across the 9 leagues tested.
In the Greek Basket League, corner threes convert at 38.63% against 33.45% above the break, a gap of 5.18 percentage points. A distance-only model already predicts 3.07 of that, leaving a residual of 2.11 points (SE 0.75), which is distinguishable from zero. The corner effect is mostly the shorter shot, and the model prices it already.
Full NBA feed to hand-logged scoresheet costs 0.020 log loss and 0.024 AUC, and IMPROVES calibration (ECE 0.0122 -> 0.0025). Measured across 4 grades of feed on one fixed subsample of 250,000 shots; the full table is on the page.
No per-shot defender distance, touch time or pose. Predictive validity is untested and untestable with the data available, so no claim is made about forecasting development.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.