About 294.4 attempts before Basketball Bundesliga shot-making is half reliable, and not reached before it reaches 0.7. Shot selection settles far earlier, at 10 attempts for 0.5 and 16.1 attempts for 0.7. Selection is a property of where a player shoots from, which stabilises quickly; making is whether the ball went in, which does not.
| Attempts | Selection reliability | Shot-making reliability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.619 | 0.043 |
| 20 | 0.753 | 0.087 |
| 30 | 0.815 | 0.129 |
| 50 | 0.872 | 0.184 |
| 100 | 0.928 | 0.269 |
| 200 | 0.957 | 0.355 |
| 400 | 0.978 | 0.662 |
The observable ceiling on this population is 400 attempts, where selection reads 0.978 and making 0.662. These thresholds are a property of each league's own talent dispersion, not constants, which is why they differ across the 9 leagues tested.
In the Basketball Bundesliga, corner threes convert at 37.02% against 33.87% above the break, a gap of 3.14 percentage points. A distance-only model already predicts 1.93 of that, leaving a residual of 1.21 points (SE 0.59), which is distinguishable from zero. The corner effect is mostly the shorter shot, and the model prices it already.
Full NBA feed to hand-logged scoresheet costs 0.020 log loss and 0.024 AUC, and IMPROVES calibration (ECE 0.0122 -> 0.0025). Measured across 4 grades of feed on one fixed subsample of 250,000 shots; the full table is on the page.
No per-shot defender distance, touch time or pose. Predictive validity is untested and untestable with the data available, so no claim is made about forecasting development.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.