Points over expected is what a player adds beyond what his shots were worth: the field goals he makes above the difficulty of the looks he took, plus the free throws he draws above the rate those same situations usually produce, expressed per 100 possessions and measured against each season's own league rate rather than a flat average.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA. It answers one question three ways in every league: shot value, shot-making, and foul-drawing, all possession-level and leak-free, built from 2,882,111 possessions of public play-by-play.
| # | Player | Team | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | +8.0 | +12.7 | +27.4 |
| 2 | Jimmy Butler III | GSW | +1.7 | +24.1 | +25.5 |
| 3 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | +6.0 | +13.1 | +23.6 |
| 4 | Luka Garza | BOS | +8.6 | +6.9 | +23.0 |
| 5 | Jalen Duren | DET | +4.7 | +19.6 | +21.8 |
| 6 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | +10.4 | +3.3 | +21.7 |
| 7 | Jordan Miller | LAC | +6.1 | +14.8 | +21.4 |
| 8 | Zion Williamson | NOP | +3.2 | +23.2 | +20.6 |
| 9 | Luka Dončić | LAL | +6.5 | +11.0 | +20.0 |
| 10 | Kevin Durant | HOU | +8.3 | +0.8 | +19.4 |
Seasons covered: 2020-21 to 2025-26 across 9 leagues.
What this does not measure: the numbers blend playstyle, skill and officiating without separating them, and they are not evidence of referee bias.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.