Points over expected is what a player adds beyond what his shots were worth: the field goals he makes above the difficulty of the looks he took, plus the free throws he draws above the rate those same situations usually produce, expressed per 100 possessions and measured against each season's own league rate rather than a flat average.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA. It answers one question three ways in every league: shot value, shot-making, and foul-drawing, all possession-level and leak-free, built from 7,862,379 possessions of public play-by-play.
| # | Player | Team | Shot-making | Free throws | Points over expected / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | +8.0 | +10.7 | +25.7 |
| 2 | Luke Kennard | ATL / LAL | +10.1 | −5.3 | +23.0 |
| 3 | DeMar DeRozan | SAC | +6.1 | +12.2 | +22.9 |
| 4 | Luka Dončić | LAL | +6.5 | +14.6 | +22.8 |
| 5 | Kevin Durant | HOU | +8.2 | +2.9 | +21.0 |
| 6 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | +10.4 | +1.3 | +20.2 |
| 7 | Cam Spencer | MEM | +6.6 | +1.5 | +20.1 |
| 8 | Austin Reaves | LAL | +5.5 | +10.5 | +19.9 |
| 9 | Luka Garza | BOS | +8.5 | +3.0 | +19.9 |
| 10 | James Harden | LAC / CLE | +1.6 | +16.7 | +19.9 |
Seasons covered: 1997-98 to 2026-27 across 9 leagues.
What this does not measure: the numbers blend playstyle, skill and officiating without separating them, and they are not evidence of referee bias.
Over Expected is a basketball shot-value platform covering NBA, EuroLeague, EuroCup, Liga ACB, Lega Basket Serie A, Basketball Bundesliga, Greek Basket League, ABA Liga, WNBA.